Signal · E-commerce & DTC brands
CAC down a little, repeat up a little, LTV / CAC moves more than founders expect. The ops loop behind the math.
DTC operators are buried in tools that don't talk: Shopify, Klaviyo, Gorgias, a 3PL portal, Triple Whale or Northbeam on top, plus whatever the founder built in a Google Sheet at 2am last quarter. None of them agree on yesterday's revenue. All of them want a seat fee.
The brands compounding past $10M aren't the ones with the prettiest PDP. They're the ones whose data layer reconciles Shopify, the 3PL, and the ad platforms automatically — whose CX is mostly automated with a human in the loop for the 12% that matters — and whose founder spends Tuesday on product, not on chasing why Meta and GA4 disagree by 22%.
Below are five Signals — interactive models of the workflows we deploy for DTC operators. Move the dials. The defaults are calibrated to brands doing $2M–$40M / yr on Shopify.
// Signal 01 — CAC vs LTV simulator
CAC vs LTV simulator
What happens when the post-purchase loop, CX agent, and retention triggers all run on the same data.
Effective CAC
$42
Blended across channels
Annual LTV
$90
Margin-adjusted
LTV : CAC
2.1×
Baseline
// Signal 02 — Subscription churn & cohorts
Subscription churn & cohort retention
Monthly churn, MRR at risk, win-back recovery — and the cohort curve underneath.
Monthly churn
9.4%
395 subs / mo
MRR at risk
$15,010
From this month's churn cohort
Recovered MRR
$600
4% win-back via auto loops
Cohort retention · month 0–11
// Signal 03 — CX deflection & co-pilot
CX deflection & co-pilot
The agent reads order data + policy docs, deflects what it can, drafts replies on the rest. Human approves and sends.
Deflected
0%
WISMO, returns, policy Qs
Drafted for human
0%
One-click approve & send
Agent hours / mo
320
CSAT
84
FTE saved: 0
// Signal 04 — Inventory & stockout risk
Inventory & stockout risk
Days of cover vs. lead time, by SKU. The red rows reorder themselves before sales finds out.
| SKU | On hand | Wk velocity | Lead time | Days of cover | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORE-BLK-M | 412 | 86 | 38d | 34d | STOCKOUT |
| CORE-WHT-L | 188 | 142 | 38d | 9d | STOCKOUT |
| ACC-STR-01 | 64 | 28 | 21d | 16d | STOCKOUT |
| BNDL-STARTR | 2,204 | 71 | 28d | 217d | OVERSTOCK |
| REFILL-30CT | 96 | 220 | 14d | 3d | STOCKOUT |
// Signal 05 — Founder hour autopsy
Where the founder's hours go
Self-reported, 8 DTC operators, weekly average — before we wired them up.
The work the founder actually wants to do is the bottom bar. Everything above it is what Axiom moves to software on a flat retainer.
// What we ship for DTC brands
- → Ops dashboard stitching Shopify + 3PL + ad platforms — one revenue truth, refreshed hourly.
- → CX co-pilot on Gorgias / Zendesk that drafts replies from order data + policy docs.
- → Post-purchase journeys: review collection, replenishment nudges, win-back at 60/90/120 days.
- → Cohort + LTV rollups that don't require a data hire to maintain.
- → Subscription billing tweaks, bundle logic, gift flows — direct on Shopify, no third-party rent.
- → Inventory + 3PL reconciliation with stockout / overstock alerts and reorder suggestions.
- → Investor-update generator — pull MRR, CAC, LTV, cohort retention into a clean monthly memo.
// The stack we connect into
The DTC brand that survives the next cycle isn't the one with the boldest TikTok strategy. It's the one whose unit economics are obvious every morning, whose CX team is one human plus a co-pilot instead of six humans plus a Zendesk bill, and whose founder is in the product room on Wednesday instead of the spreadsheet room. That's the brand we build for.
// this is an example, not a product
Your DTC stack isn't ours. The build is custom.
Everything above is a working preview of an Axiom engagement — not a SaaS you sign up for, and not a template you bolt on. We've published a handful of industry Signals because those are the verticals we know cold. The actual deliverable is a full custom application built on our engine, wired into your tools, your data, and the way your team already works. If your workflow doesn't look like the one on this page, that's the point.
// SIGNAL BACK · ecommerce-dtc-brands
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